Vol. 10 (2026): Identidad Bolivariana: 2da Edición Especial
Original Items

Artificial Intelligence System for Predicting University Academic Performance: A Comparative Study of Methodologies

Diana Carolina Chuquizala Erazo
Universidad Bolivariana del Ecuador
Damian Esteban Cabascango Cáceres
Universidad Bolivariana del Ecuador
Manuel Reyes Wagnio
Universidad Bolivariana del Ecuador
Rangel Dayron Rumbau
Universidad Bolivariana del Ecuador

Published 2026-09-11

Keywords

  • artificial intelligence,
  • academic performance,
  • higher education,
  • predictive models,
  • machine learning

How to Cite

Artificial Intelligence System for Predicting University Academic Performance: A Comparative Study of Methodologies. (2026). Identidad Bolivariana, 10, 169-176. https://doi.org/10.37611/IB10ol169-176

Abstract

Higher education faces limitations in monitoring academic performance due to the predominance of traditional methodologies, which has encouraged the incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) as a tool to optimize educational processes. In this context, the present study aimed to design and evaluate an AI-based system to predict university students’ academic performance through the analysis of educational data and the comparison between traditional methodologies and AI-supported strategies. A quantitative study with an experimental design was conducted on a sample of 80 students divided into a control group and an experimental group. Data collection was carried out through academic assessments, digital forms, and activity records, while data processing was performed using machine learning algorithms such as logistic regression, decision trees, and neural networks. The results showed higher academic performance in the experimental group (M=8.3) compared to the control group (M=7.2), with statistically significant differences (p < 0.001), as well as higher levels of participation and use of educational resources. The predictive model achieved an accuracy of 85 %, demonstrating an adequate capacity to anticipate student performance. It is concluded that AI represents a key tool for improving academic performance and supporting data-driven pedagogical decision-making in higher education.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

  1. Baker, R. S., & Inventado, P. S. (2014). Educational data mining and learning analytics. In J. A. Larusson & B. White (Eds.), Learning analytics: From research to practice (pp. 61–75). Springer.
  2. Biggs, J., Tang, C. & Kennedy, G. (2022). Teaching for quality learning at university (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill.
  3. Boettcher, J. V., & Conrad, R. M. (2021). The Online Teaching Survival Guide: Simple and Practical Pedagogical Tips (3rd ed.). Jossey-Bass.
  4. Chen, L., Chen, P., & Lin, Z. (2020). Artificial intelligence in education: A review. IEEE Access, 8, 75264–75278. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2988510
  5. Hellas, A., Ihantola, P., Petersen, A., Ajanovski, V. V., Gutica, M., Hynninen, T., Knutas, A., Leinonen, J., Messom, C., & Liao, S. N. (2018). Predicting academic performance: A systematic literature review. En Proceedings Companion of the 23rd Annual ACM Conference on Innovation and Technology in Computer Science Education (ITiCSE ’18 Companion) (pp. 175–199). Association for Computing Machinery. https://doi.org/10.1145/3293881.3295783
  6. Holmes, W., Bialik, M., & Fadel, C. (2019). Artificial intelligence in education: Promises and implications for teaching and learning. Center for Curriculum Redesign.
  7. Ifenthaler, D., & Schumacher, C. (2016). Student perceptions of privacy principles for learning analytics. Educational Technology Research and Development, 69(2), 821–839. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11423-016-9477-y
  8. Khosravi, H., Buckingham Shum, S., Chen, G., Conati, C., Tsai, Y.-S., Kay, J., Knight, S., Martinez-Maldonado, R., Sadiq, S., & Gašević, D. (2022). Explainable artificial intelligence in education. Computers and Education: Artificial Intelligence, 3, 100074. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.caeai.2022.100074
  9. Luckin, R., Holmes, W., Griffiths, M., & Forcier, L. (2016). Intelligence unleashed: An argument for AI in education. Pearson.
  10. OECD. (2019). Artificial intelligence in society. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/eedfee77-en
  11. Papamitsiou, Z., & Economides, A. A. (2014). Learning analytics and educational data mining in practice: A systematic literature review. Educational Technology & Society, 23(2), 1–13.
  12. Siemens, G. (2005). Connectivism: A learning theory for the digital age. International Journal of Instructional Technology and Distance Learning, 2(1), 3–10.
  13. Siemens, G., & Baker, R. (2012). Learning analytics and educational data mining. In R. K. Sawyer (Ed.), The Cambridge handbook of the learning sciences (3rd ed.). Cambridge University Press.
  14. Sweeney, M., Lester, J., & Rangwala, H. (2016). Next-term student performance prediction. Journal of Educational Data Mining, 14(1), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3554603
  15. Waheed, H., Hassan, S. U., Aljohani, N. R., Hardman, J., & Nawaz, R. (2019). Predicting academic performance of students from VLE big data using deep learning models. Computers in Human Behavior, 104, 106189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2019.106189